Wednesday, August 6, 2014
Who is Airbnb and Why Do They Want So Much of My Personal Informaiton?
I have recently had my first encounter with Airbnb and will have to admit this will not be a positive comment. I believe investor caution is appropriate. Blame it on my browser or lap top software vintage but my wife and I spent more than an hour attempting to reserve two nights at an apartment on the New Jersey shore. After confirming by email with the owner that they were small dog friendly, we were directed to establish an account with Airbnb to complete the reservation. Simple right? Wrong. With trite e-mail explanations about why additional data beyond my credit card number and key code were needed, Airbnb proceeded to ask for copies of our drivers license and connections to social media we utilize such as Facebook, LinkedIn and others. We then received a flip response that we under utilize the social media services and they certainly can not confirm scenery. We happen to have a picture of both of us with our bikes with Acadia Nation Park in the background for our Facebook profile picture. We were now multiple e-mails into this transaction for which we had to establish a password and were discovering we could not convince whoever was on the other end of the line that we're were who we presented ourselves to be. It did not help that the Airbnb web pages had glitches and presented a labyrinth of dead ends when attempting to reenter the system after fetching the required additional information. If you do not have an account because you have not satisfied someone's interpretation of what constitutes proper identification then you get stuck and have to start over. Next we were informed that because it is so important to make sure we are the same people in the photos we sent, we now needed to create a video in which we were instructed to identify ourselves and state where we lived. To do this we were required to change our lap top internet settings to allow external audio and video access. A specific instruction require us to check the "Remember settings" box or the process could not proceed. At this time we started receiving nag e-mails indicating we only had 12 hours to run this gauntlet before the pending reservation would be cancelled. Mind you, the rental owner had already indicated through e-mail that we were ok. We made the 30 second video and checked the upload button fully believing the note on the page that indicated the process would only take a couple of minutes. What they doing we may never know but 30 minutes later with the little upload icon spinning we had no confirmation. However, we had additional nag e-mails from our second sign on attempt demanding more personal information and another warning the 12 Hour cancel clock was still running. We actually gave up and shut down assuming we did not make the grade and were reconsidering our trip. Some time later that morning we received an e-mail congratulating us on completing our transaction. We contacted the owner to confirm this was in fact true. During our stay, we were surprised to hear that the owner also had a similar experience when listing the rental in the Airbnb system. I do not know about you but I get nervous when people I do not know ask for personal information, especially more than seems reasonable without a good explanation as to why so much is needed other than they are still not satisfied. May be it is because they are not connected like large retailers or the government. I was able to get credit cards, a passport and global entry card without the same level of interrogation. And why would they insist on the "Remember settings" selection for the audio and video devices? Since the encounter, I went into my browser and multimedia settings to undo the Airbnb required settings. Like I said this was not a positive comment, consistent with my Airbnb experience. Based on this, I would recommend that potential Airbnb investors look for clear plans from Airbnb detailing how they will improve their software, begin using existing data sources for personal info to spare their customers the pain and wasted time and explain how they will prevent loss or misuse of the hoard of personal data they are accumulating. Failure to address these issues, in particular personal data protection, could drive a quick end to this venture.
Where do we go from here?
Where do we go from here?
"Take the next left.", "Apply to college or go for an advanced degree", "Get married" "Go to Mars....or not" Responses to this question require projecting oneself into the future, synthesizing a future state in your mind, viewing this future state in our minds eye and then making a decision effecting current status based on this synthesized future reality. You do this continuously during your waking hours to make decisions involving all matters of life. Eat this or that, respond yes or no, turn right or left. We do not have to think about looking ahead and we are very successful in accurately portraying an immediate future state as evidenced by our ability to get through a day without falling down or getting lost. There are of course exceptions and I would not consider it a problem if those who appear to have no understanding of the consequences of their actions suddenly acquired some foresight.
What about a more extended look? Beyond the mundane frames of our daily movie. How about the view over the hill beyond the next hour or day or even week. Does the essential skill of looking into the immediate future enable an internal synthesis to be made out across the chasm of future decades, centuries or millennium?
A simple approach would be to extend your time line along the same slope. Assume everything that is changing continues to change at the same rate and everything that is constant remains constant. The result is that you will be going to school or work just as you are today a year from now or 4 years from now. You will be living where you are living, driving the same car or bike or walking the same path and seeing the same scenery. How far ahead could you look and assume so much will remain the same? There are obvious life changing events that would prevent a smooth transition into the future. You graduate from school and travel, seek employment or attend graduate school within 2-4 years. This might involve a move. Your car probably is replaced in 5-10 years. In the 10-20 year time frame you probably could predict with reasonable accuracy people getting married, having children, getting sick and passing on. This is your immediate world line and most predictable. Beyond this would be the world lines of family, close friends and acquaintances. What about the rest of the world?
Buildings cars and roads will look pretty much the same for 20 to 30 years.
Trees, shrubs are changing on the order of 50 to 100 years. Step out 100 years and then back to the main street of a northern New England town nestled in a valley of the Green Mountains and you might need to look closely at building signs or car styles to notice a difference. Does it have to be this way, of course not. One or two significant events to provide the right external influence and large scale changes can occur and continue to occur like ripples expanding on a pond after the event. Man made or natural events such as earthquakes and floods or world wars may dramatically change the local environment beyond recognition or alter how entire populations live. In the pressure wave of significant events, before it dissipates, mass migrations occur, inventions are made and technology springs ahead. First flight and landing on the moon in 50 years is a bit cliche but none the less a perfect example. Change and the rate of change is not constant but I do not believe rapid significant change is a normal state. Therefore when projecting into the future to make predictions it is important to understand if one is in a current post significant event state or in a more static condition. The difference will be whether you predict great changes continuing to occur or the status quo with change on a scale of hundreds of years versus tens of years.
The error many visionary have made is to assume the pace of change remains fast or accelerates. It is possible that predictions as these were made during a time of great change such as the industrial revolution or post world war.
Looking forward from 2012 presents a vision that is different than if I looked forward in 1965. In 1965 we thought we would have had space stations for tourists, outposts on the moon and sub orbital flights around the globe in hours by now. The pace of events was still compressed in the wake of WW2, the Korean War and then Vietnam. Chemical, Electronic, Scientific advances were coming fast and furious. In 2012 the pace has changed. We did not get back the the moon after our brief encounter over 30 years ago. Our space station is not the vision of "2001 a Space Odyssey" the world has weathered the cold war, watched the collapse of the Soviet Union and is falling back into a 1950's style of security mania in response to attacks from violent religious fanatics. Given this status, what might we look forward to as we reel the film forward
2020 More hybrid cars. Gas is more expensive. Mass transit is still not utilized effectively in the US. Iran has had an event. The moon is visited again briefly. There are more people on the planet. There is less polar ice. Birth rate exceeds death rate significantly except in highly developed and aging countries. Many countries around the world still struggle to make their mark riding on the ambitions of a select few. Wind and solar energy generation and use still creeping up.
Age of the Electronic Curtain where rogue nations establish effective firewalls to prevent connection to the global net. After a 2015 asteroid visit by a private company sampling satellite that confirmed crystalline iron in 99% pure deposits a large commercial automated mining and processing satellite was launched from India, China and a private enterprise in the US. Details of how processed material will be utilized has yet to be determined.
2050 More hybrid and electric cars. Electric charge stations installed like air stations at convenience stores. More expensive gas. Wind and solar energy use still creeping up. Geothermal also increasing. Mars is visited briefly. Alternate earth like planets are confirmed by thermal radiation and spectrum analysis of reflected light but remain out of reach. Space station orbit deteriorates and is lost in the ocean. Birth rate and death rate nearing parity due to decease, starvation and war. Food and water wars occurring in third world. The Smithsonian adds an incandescent light bulb exhibit. Iron or ingots delivered to Lagrange orbit for holding until utilization plan developed. Dropping ingots to Earth's surface resisted by numerous organizations for environmental and safety reasons.
2080 The norm is a hybrid or electric car. Gas is used to generate electricity mostly. Polar ice is gone. Coastal migration event in process due to rising sea level and increased frequency of storm surge making shore property uninsurable. Floating villages multiplying but a extreme risk to loss from natural events. Global epidemic imminent if it has not already occurred. Emigration to more northern latitudes in new ariable land occurring. Greenland becomes attractive for settlement in new open land. Desert regions significantly increased area. Off planet habitation by large number of people unlikely until on planet conditions drive people in to closed controled environments. Not likely before 2150.
2500 Off planet settlements established and populations stabilized. Earth habitation still desirable but path to regain open air living very long. Ice Ages that have occurred every 100,000 years for 30 million years are understood and may not be avoidable even with global warming. Probe to nearest Earth like planet launched using hyper velocity technology and quantum entangled communication.
"Take the next left.", "Apply to college or go for an advanced degree", "Get married" "Go to Mars....or not" Responses to this question require projecting oneself into the future, synthesizing a future state in your mind, viewing this future state in our minds eye and then making a decision effecting current status based on this synthesized future reality. You do this continuously during your waking hours to make decisions involving all matters of life. Eat this or that, respond yes or no, turn right or left. We do not have to think about looking ahead and we are very successful in accurately portraying an immediate future state as evidenced by our ability to get through a day without falling down or getting lost. There are of course exceptions and I would not consider it a problem if those who appear to have no understanding of the consequences of their actions suddenly acquired some foresight.
What about a more extended look? Beyond the mundane frames of our daily movie. How about the view over the hill beyond the next hour or day or even week. Does the essential skill of looking into the immediate future enable an internal synthesis to be made out across the chasm of future decades, centuries or millennium?
A simple approach would be to extend your time line along the same slope. Assume everything that is changing continues to change at the same rate and everything that is constant remains constant. The result is that you will be going to school or work just as you are today a year from now or 4 years from now. You will be living where you are living, driving the same car or bike or walking the same path and seeing the same scenery. How far ahead could you look and assume so much will remain the same? There are obvious life changing events that would prevent a smooth transition into the future. You graduate from school and travel, seek employment or attend graduate school within 2-4 years. This might involve a move. Your car probably is replaced in 5-10 years. In the 10-20 year time frame you probably could predict with reasonable accuracy people getting married, having children, getting sick and passing on. This is your immediate world line and most predictable. Beyond this would be the world lines of family, close friends and acquaintances. What about the rest of the world?
Buildings cars and roads will look pretty much the same for 20 to 30 years.
Trees, shrubs are changing on the order of 50 to 100 years. Step out 100 years and then back to the main street of a northern New England town nestled in a valley of the Green Mountains and you might need to look closely at building signs or car styles to notice a difference. Does it have to be this way, of course not. One or two significant events to provide the right external influence and large scale changes can occur and continue to occur like ripples expanding on a pond after the event. Man made or natural events such as earthquakes and floods or world wars may dramatically change the local environment beyond recognition or alter how entire populations live. In the pressure wave of significant events, before it dissipates, mass migrations occur, inventions are made and technology springs ahead. First flight and landing on the moon in 50 years is a bit cliche but none the less a perfect example. Change and the rate of change is not constant but I do not believe rapid significant change is a normal state. Therefore when projecting into the future to make predictions it is important to understand if one is in a current post significant event state or in a more static condition. The difference will be whether you predict great changes continuing to occur or the status quo with change on a scale of hundreds of years versus tens of years.
The error many visionary have made is to assume the pace of change remains fast or accelerates. It is possible that predictions as these were made during a time of great change such as the industrial revolution or post world war.
Looking forward from 2012 presents a vision that is different than if I looked forward in 1965. In 1965 we thought we would have had space stations for tourists, outposts on the moon and sub orbital flights around the globe in hours by now. The pace of events was still compressed in the wake of WW2, the Korean War and then Vietnam. Chemical, Electronic, Scientific advances were coming fast and furious. In 2012 the pace has changed. We did not get back the the moon after our brief encounter over 30 years ago. Our space station is not the vision of "2001 a Space Odyssey" the world has weathered the cold war, watched the collapse of the Soviet Union and is falling back into a 1950's style of security mania in response to attacks from violent religious fanatics. Given this status, what might we look forward to as we reel the film forward
2020 More hybrid cars. Gas is more expensive. Mass transit is still not utilized effectively in the US. Iran has had an event. The moon is visited again briefly. There are more people on the planet. There is less polar ice. Birth rate exceeds death rate significantly except in highly developed and aging countries. Many countries around the world still struggle to make their mark riding on the ambitions of a select few. Wind and solar energy generation and use still creeping up.
Age of the Electronic Curtain where rogue nations establish effective firewalls to prevent connection to the global net. After a 2015 asteroid visit by a private company sampling satellite that confirmed crystalline iron in 99% pure deposits a large commercial automated mining and processing satellite was launched from India, China and a private enterprise in the US. Details of how processed material will be utilized has yet to be determined.
2050 More hybrid and electric cars. Electric charge stations installed like air stations at convenience stores. More expensive gas. Wind and solar energy use still creeping up. Geothermal also increasing. Mars is visited briefly. Alternate earth like planets are confirmed by thermal radiation and spectrum analysis of reflected light but remain out of reach. Space station orbit deteriorates and is lost in the ocean. Birth rate and death rate nearing parity due to decease, starvation and war. Food and water wars occurring in third world. The Smithsonian adds an incandescent light bulb exhibit. Iron or ingots delivered to Lagrange orbit for holding until utilization plan developed. Dropping ingots to Earth's surface resisted by numerous organizations for environmental and safety reasons.
2080 The norm is a hybrid or electric car. Gas is used to generate electricity mostly. Polar ice is gone. Coastal migration event in process due to rising sea level and increased frequency of storm surge making shore property uninsurable. Floating villages multiplying but a extreme risk to loss from natural events. Global epidemic imminent if it has not already occurred. Emigration to more northern latitudes in new ariable land occurring. Greenland becomes attractive for settlement in new open land. Desert regions significantly increased area. Off planet habitation by large number of people unlikely until on planet conditions drive people in to closed controled environments. Not likely before 2150.
2500 Off planet settlements established and populations stabilized. Earth habitation still desirable but path to regain open air living very long. Ice Ages that have occurred every 100,000 years for 30 million years are understood and may not be avoidable even with global warming. Probe to nearest Earth like planet launched using hyper velocity technology and quantum entangled communication.
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